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Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 12 Jul 2020Publisher:Research Square Platform LLCJournal:Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, volume 569, page 125,773 (issn: 0378-4371, Copyright policy )
Authors: dos Santos, I.F.F.; Almeida, G.M.A.; de Moura, F.A.B.F.;

doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-40116/v1 , 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773

pmid: 33495669

pmc: PMC7816938

Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Abstract

Abstract We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. The calculations are based on an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates and can reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than $5\%$ error. Furthermore, it is possible to predict the epidemic progression in the near future and we go on to estimate the time required to stabilize the virus propagation. The model is also proved to be accurate for analyzing the epidemic dynamics in other countries.

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Keywords

Statistics and Probability, Condensed Matter Physics, Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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hybrid
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