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A simple method for unsupervised anomaly detection: An application to Web time series data

Authors: Keisuke Yoshihara; Kei Takahashi;

A simple method for unsupervised anomaly detection: An application to Web time series data

Abstract

We propose a simple anomaly detection method that is applicable to unlabeled time series data and is sufficiently tractable, even for non-technical entities, by using the density ratio estimation based on the state space model. Our detection rule is based on the ratio of log-likelihoods estimated by the dynamic linear model, i.e. the ratio of log-likelihood in our model to that in an over-dispersed model that we will call the NULL model. Using the Yahoo S5 data set and the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark data set, publicly available and commonly used benchmark data sets, we find that our method achieves better or comparable performance compared to the existing methods. The result implies that it is essential in time series anomaly detection to incorporate the specific information on time series data into the model. In addition, we apply the proposed method to unlabeled Web time series data, specifically, daily page view and average session duration data on an electronic commerce site that deals in insurance goods to show the applicability of our method to unlabeled real-world data. We find that the increase in page view caused by e-mail newsletter deliveries is less likely to contribute to completing an insurance contract. The result also suggests the importance of the simultaneous monitoring of more than one time series.

Keywords

Internet, Time Factors, Science, Q, Statistics as Topic, R, Datasets as Topic, Search Engine, Medicine, Humans, Neural Networks, Computer, Algorithms, Research Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold