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Frontiers in Physics
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Frontiers in Physics
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Autoregressive Times Series Methods for Time Domain Astronomy

Authors: Eric D. Feigelson; Eric D. Feigelson; G. Jogesh Babu; G. Jogesh Babu; Gabriel A. Caceres;

Autoregressive Times Series Methods for Time Domain Astronomy

Abstract

Celestial objects exhibit a wide range of variability in brightness at different wavebands. Surprisingly, the most common methods for characterizing time series in statistics -- parametric autoregressive modeling -- is rarely used to interpret astronomical light curves. We review standard ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA (autoregressive moving average fractionally integrated) models that treat short-memory autocorrelation, long-memory $1/f^��$ `red noise', and nonstationary trends. Though designed for evenly spaced time series, moderately irregular cadences can be treated as evenly-spaced time series with missing data. Fitting algorithms are efficient and software implementations are widely available. We apply ARIMA models to light curves of four variable stars, discussing their effectiveness for different temporal characteristics. A variety of extensions to ARIMA are outlined, with emphasis on recently developed continuous-time models like CARMA and CARFIMA designed for irregularly spaced time series. Strengths and weakness of ARIMA-type modeling for astronomical data analysis and astrophysical insights are reviewed.

17 pages, 4 figures, published in 'Frontiers of Physics', vol 6, id. 80 (2018)

Related Organizations
Keywords

irregularly sampled time series, time series analysis, Physics, QC1-999, quasars, time domain astronomy, statistical methods, FOS: Physical sciences, Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, variable stars, Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
60
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold
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