Abstract. Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, is one of the major sources of the Nile River. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams of which the allowed discharge is dictated by the Agreed Curve, an equation relating outflow to lake level. Some regional climate models project a decrease of precipitation and an increase of evaporation over Lake Victoria, with potential important implications for its water balance and resulting level. Yet, nothing is known about the potential consequences of climate change for the water balance of Lake Victoria. In this second part of a two-paper series, we feed a new water balance model for Lake Victoria presented in the first part with climate simulations available through the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa framework. Our results reveal that most regional climate models are not capable of giving a realistic representation of the water balance of Lake Victoria. Therefore we applied two bias correction methods, resulting in both cases in a closed water balance. Our results reveal that for two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), the decrease in precipitation over the lake and an increase in evaporation are compensated by an increase in basin precipitation leading to more inflow. The future lake level projections show that the outflow scenario and not the emission scenario is the main controlling factor of the future water level evolution. Moreover, inter-model uncertainties are larger than emission scenario uncertainties. The comparison of four different outflow scenarios for the future uncovers that the only sustainable outflow scenario is regulating outflow following the Agreed Curve. The associated outflow encompasses however large uncertainties ranging up to 177 %, which are important to take into account regarding future hydropower generation and water availability downstream.