Fragment-based screening is an established route to identify low-molecular-weight molecules to generate high-affinity inhibitors in drug discovery. The affinities of these early hits from fragment screenings require a highly sensitive biophysical screening technique. Saturation transfer difference (STD) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is one of the most popular methods owing to its high sensitivity for low-affinity ligands. It would be highly beneficial if rank-ordering of hits according to their affinity from an initial or counter-screen could be performed-a selection criterion found in the literature. We applied Complete Relaxation and Conformational Exchange Matrix (CORCEMA) theory adapted for saturation transfer (ST) measurements (CORCEMA-ST) calculations to predict STD NMR results from a large set of fragment/receptor pairs to investigate the boundaries under which the assumption holds true that a high STD effect can be applied to select for higher-affinity fragments. Overall, we come to the conclusion that this assumption is invalid.