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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
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The 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China

Authors: Ke-Pei Men; Kai Zhao;

The 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake and the prediction for M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China

Abstract

According to the statistical analysis, a total of 25 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China and neighborhood from 1300 to 2015. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has shown an obvious commensurability and self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that the Nepal great earthquakes have a significant relationship with the M ≥ 8 earthquakes in West China. Within such a short 100 years from 1902 to 2001, three ordered pairs of M ≥ 8 earthquakes took place in West China: 1902–1906, 1927–1931, and 1997–2001, each pair of two earthquakes had a time interval of 4 years, which is a quite unique and rare example in the earthquake history of China and the whole world. Based on the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information of three M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal: M8 in 1833, M8.1 in 1934, and M8.1 in 2015, hence constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. The results show that the occurrence of the 2015 Nepal M8.1 earthquake indicates the beginning of another M ≥ 8 earthquake cycle in West China. The great or strong earthquakes will probably happen in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau area and gradually migrate from the south to the north for decades. A new ordered pair of M ≥ 8 earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in West China, as well as a single event around 2029.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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