
The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Ni��o phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which occur before the discontinuous percolation transition in the network as well as other network quantities to identify a set of reliable precursors of El Ni��o episodes. These precursors identify nine out of twelve El Ni��o episodes occurring in the period of 1979 to 2018 with a lead time varying from six to ten months. We also find indicators of tipping events in the data.
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences
| citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 5 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
