
A soja é a cultura mais importante do agronegócio brasileiro. Entretanto, na época da comercialização, os sojicultores defrontam-se com o dilema de "quanto", "quando" e "como" vender sua produção, devido ao fato de a mesma ser uma atividade realizada sob condições de risco e de incerteza. Através da utilização de um modelo matemático de programação quadrática, buscou-se determinar os melhores portfólios, no sentido de maximizar a renda com certo nível de risco, ou minimizar o risco para certos níveis de renda. O portfólio mais eficiente obtido entre todos diz respeito a produtores com "média aversão ao risco" (α = 0,30). Dessa forma, tal plano ótimo de comercialização indica que os produtores de soja do Estado do Paraná poderiam armazenar a produção na época da colheita com posterior venda mensal fracionada, o que representaria um total de 90,8% das vendas concentrando-se nos últimos quatro meses do ano.The soybeans complex represents a fundamental role in the brazilian agribusiness. However, at the time of soybeans marketing, producers face a dilemma: "when", "how much" and "how" to sell their production, due to the uncertainties of this activity under risk conditions. By this way, using a mathematical model of quadratic programming, this work has searched for the best portfolio, trying to increase their incomes with some level of risk or to decrease risks at some income level. The most efficient plan is related to producers with medium risk aversion (α = 0,3). This optimum marketing plan shows that soybean producers of Paraná State could store production at the harvest time in order to sell later following, for instance, this schedule: 21,9% in September; 25,1% in October; 19,9% in November and 23,9% in December, which means that 90,8% of all sales concentrated on the last four months of the year.
Industrial productivity, Industrial engineering. Management engineering, Soja, quadratic programming, T55.4-60.8, portfolio, HD56-57.5, risco, Soybeans, portfólios, programação quadrática, risk
Industrial productivity, Industrial engineering. Management engineering, Soja, quadratic programming, T55.4-60.8, portfolio, HD56-57.5, risco, Soybeans, portfólios, programação quadrática, risk
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