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[Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease].

Authors: Salvador, Ayala; Sergio, Alvarado; Dante, Cáceres; Inés, Zulantay; Mauricio, Canals;

[Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease].

Abstract

Reproductive number (R0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change.To map R0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change.We used a relationship between R0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions.We obtained a geographical R0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R0averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios.Mapping R0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.

Keywords

Male, Geography, Climate Change, Trypanosoma cruzi, Temperature, Carbon Dioxide, Disease Vectors, Risk Assessment, Statistics, Nonparametric, Risk Factors, Animals, Humans, Chagas Disease, Female, Triatoma, Chile

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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