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Ensayos sobre los determinantes reales del tipo de cambio

Authors: Tariffi, Leonardo;

Ensayos sobre los determinantes reales del tipo de cambio

Abstract

[spa]Los desequilibrios internos y externos de los países en la economía global han dado lugar a debates sobre el intercambio de monedas y su vinculación con la competitividad, las balanzas de pagos y el crecimiento sostenido. Un aspecto en común se refiere a que las distorsiones en las cuentas corriente y de capital se producen conjuntamente con desajustes en el tipo de cambio real (TCR). Existen principalmente dos modelos macroeconómicos para explicar la conducta del TCR: la Paridad del Poder de Compra (PPC) y el efecto Balassa - Samuelson. Para inferir la teoría que mejor se adapta a los datos empíricos, se contrasta la teoría de la PPC y se encuentra la relación entre el TCR, sus determinantes reales y las tarifas arancelarias, en el contexto de la Zona Euro y los países BRICS. Técnicas de cointegración fundamentan la relación de largo plazo cuando el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) con mecanismo de corrección de errores (MCE) muestra la relación de corto plazo. Explicar las mencionadas relaciones permite calcular la sobrevaloración del TCR en la Zona Euro y encontrar los efectos de disminuciones arancelarias sobre la desalineación cambiaria en los países BRICS para corregirlos a través de políticas económicas.

[eng]Internal and external imbalances in the global economy have risen debates on exchange rates and their links with competitiveness, balance of payments and sustained growth. Some of these debates refer to how current and capital accounts distortions are produced jointly with misalignments in real exchange rates (RER). There are mainly two macroeconomic models to explain RER behaviour: the purchasing power parity (PPP) and the Balassa - Samuelson effect. To infer the theory that best fits empirical data, this research will contrast the PPP theory and find a relationship between RER, its real determinants and tariffs. I focus on two empirical cases: the Euro Zone and the BRICS countries. Cointegration techniques underlie the long run relationship when the method of ordinary least squares (OLS) with error correction mechanism (ECM) shows the short term relationship. On one hand, explaining the above mentioned relations, the RER’s overvaluations or undervaluations can be calculated in the Euro Zone. On the other hand, I show tariffs decreases effects on the exchange rate misalignment in the BRICS countries to correct them through economic policies.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Equilibri (Economia), Cambio exterior, BRIC, Cointegración (Estadística), Economia internacional, Emerging markets, Change, Canvi exterior, 339, Cointegration (Statitics), International economic relations, Comerç, Mercados emergentes, Política econòmica, Euro, Commerce, Cointegració (Estadística), Globalització, Foreign exchange, Mercat emergent, Efecte Balassa-Samuelson, Economic policy, Balassa–Samuelson effect, Equilibrium (Economics), BRICS, Comercio, Efecto Balassa-Samuelson, Globalization, Ciències Jurídiques, Econòmiques i Socials

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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