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¿Son excesivamente suaves las series de contabilidad nacional trimestral?

Authors: Pons Fanals, Ernest; Pons Novell, Jordi;

¿Son excesivamente suaves las series de contabilidad nacional trimestral?

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza si las series de Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral de España son excesivamente suaves y, por lo tanto, si son realmente informativas de la evolución de la economía española a corto plazo. Mediante la utilización de las técnicas de análisis espectral se observa que las series trimestrales españolas presentan una variabilidad mayor que las de otros países de la OCDE en el intervalo de frecuencias más bajas (asociadas al comportamiento de la serie a largo plazo ) y una variabilidad menor en el intervalo de frecuencias más altas (asociadas al ruido que contiene la serie). El motivo de este comportamiento diferencial de las series trimestrales españolas se encuentra en el método utilizado por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística por estimar la señal ciclo-tendencia de los indicadores utilizados como referencia, concretamente, el conocido como filtro de líneas aéreas modificado (LAM)

- En aquest treball s'analitza si les sèries de Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral de España són excessivament suaus i, per tant, si són realment informatives de l'evolució de l'economia espanyola en el curt termini. Mitjançant la utilització de les tècniques de l'anàlisi espectral s'observa que les sèries trimestrals espanyoles presenten una variabilitat molt més gran que les d'altres països de l'OCDE a l'interval de freqüències més baixes (associades al comportament de la sèrie a llarg termini) i una variabilitat menor a l'interval de freqüències més altes(associades al soroll que conté la sèrie). El motiu d'aquest comportament diferencial de les sèries trimestrals espanyoles es troba en el mètode emprat pel Instituto Nacional de Estadística per estimar el senyal cicle-tendència dels indicadors utilitzats com a referència, concretament, el conegut com filtro de líneas aéreas modificado (LAM)

- In this paper it is analyzed if the Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral series in Spain are extremely smooth and, therefore, if they really explain about the evolution of the Spanish economy on the short term. It is shown, by use of spectral analysis,that the Spanish quarterly series have a greater variability than the ones of the other OECD countries at the lower frequencies (which are associated to the long term behavior) and a shorter variability at the upper frequencies (associated to the series noise). It is concluded that the different behavior of the Spanish quarterly series is due to the signal extraction method known as filtro de líneas aéreas modificado (LAM)

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Economics, Spain, Accounting, Comptabilitat, Anàlisi econòmica, Economic analysis, Economia, Espanya

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
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