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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Preprint . 2024
Data sources: DBLP
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Are UFOs Driving Innovation? The Illusion of Causality in Large Language Models

Authors: María Victoria Carro; Francisca Gauna Selasco; Denise Alejandra Mester; Mario A. Leiva;

Are UFOs Driving Innovation? The Illusion of Causality in Large Language Models

Abstract

Illusions of causality occur when people develop the belief that there is a causal connection between two variables with no supporting evidence. This cognitive bias has been proposed to underlie many societal problems including social prejudice, stereotype formation, misinformation and superstitious thinking. In this research we investigate whether large language models develop the illusion of causality in real-world settings. We evaluated and compared news headlines generated by GPT-4o-Mini, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and Gemini-1.5-Pro to determine whether the models incorrectly framed correlations as causal relationships. In order to also measure sycophantic behavior, which occurs when a model aligns with a user's beliefs in order to look favorable even if it is not objectively correct, we additionally incorporated the bias into the prompts, observing if this manipulation increases the likelihood of the models exhibiting the illusion of causality. We found that Claude-3.5-Sonnet is the model that presents the lowest degree of causal illusion aligned with experiments on Correlation-to-Causation Exaggeration in human-written press releases. On the other hand, our findings suggest that while mimicry sycophancy increases the likelihood of causal illusions in these models, especially in GPT-4o-Mini, Claude-3.5-Sonnet remains the most robust against this cognitive bias.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Computation and Language, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computation and Language (cs.CL), Machine Learning (cs.LG)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average