
handle: 2123/29938
Commodities dominate Australia’s export composition. To this effect, there is a plausible relationship between commodity prices and the prosperity of Australians. Gross domestic income is chosen as a proxy for prosperity given it is better able to capture purchasing power than gross domestic product in the Australian context. Using a discrete wavelet transformation, the commodity price series is decomposed into a trend and cycle component. Following, I run a series of structural vector autoregressions for the period 1985:Q4 to 2019:Q4, as well as two sub-samples, pre and post mid-2003, in view of the increase in price and variance of commodity prices at this time. I find that both the trend and cycle components of commodity prices meaningfully impact GDI primarily via gross operating surplus, while GDP is unaffected. Although a shock to the cycle component of the commodity price series has a larger effect on GDI when compared to the trend, the impact of the trend is far more persistent. Further, for the pre mid-2003 sub-sample, commodity price changes have no discernable impact on GDI, as opposed to the post mid-2003 sample where a noticeably strong relationship exists.
discrete wavelet transform, 330, cycle, SVAR, Australia, GDI, economics, GDP, trend, commodities, applied macroeconomics
discrete wavelet transform, 330, cycle, SVAR, Australia, GDI, economics, GDP, trend, commodities, applied macroeconomics
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