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EM Algorithms for Multivariate Skewed Variance Gamma Distribution with Unbounded Densities and Applications

Authors: Nitithumbundit, Thanakorn;

EM Algorithms for Multivariate Skewed Variance Gamma Distribution with Unbounded Densities and Applications

Abstract

The multivariate skewed variance gamma (VG) distribution is useful for modelling data with heavy-tails and high density around the location parameter. When the shape parameter is sufficiently small, the density function is unbounded at the location parameter. In this thesis, we proposed three modifications to appropriately bound the likelihood function so that the maximum is well-defined. These modified likelihoods are the capped, leave-one-out (LOO), and weighted LOO likelihoods. Moreover, we present expectation/conditional maximisation (ECM) algorithms to accurately estimate parameters of the VG distribution using its normal mean-variance mixture representation. Apart from parameter estimation, we also calculate standard errors (SEs) to assess the significance of the parameter estimates. However, this calculation requires the second order derivative of the log-likelihood function with respect to vector/matrices. We apply new matrix differentiation formulas to efficiently compute the observed and Fisher information matrices for the VG distribution. These SE calculations rely on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) which have been extensively studied under the smooth likelihood case. For the cusp/unbounded case, proving these asymptotic properties are a challenge as they do not satisfy the smoothness regularity condition. We numerically investigate these asymptotic properties for the location estimator when the likelihood function has cusp or unbounded points. We demonstrated its super-efficient rate of convergence and found the double generalised gamma distribution provides a good approximation to the asymptotic distribution of the location parameter. Lastly, the ECM algorithms are applied to the vector autoregressive moving average model with VG and Student's t innovations to capture serial correlation, leptokurtosis, skewness, and cross dependence of return data from high frequency stock indices and cryptocurrencies.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

519, information matrix, multivariate time series, maximum likelihood estimation, unbounded likelihood, EM algorithm, normal mean-variance mixture

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green