
handle: 2123/11745
Reliable operations and economical utilization of power systems require electricity load forecasting at a wide range of forecasting horizons. The objective of this thesis is two-fold: developing accurate prediction models for electricity load forecasting, and quantifying the load forecasting uncertainty. At first, we consider the task of feature selection for electricity load forecasting. We propose a two-step approach - identifying a set of candidate features based on the data characteristics and then selecting a subset of them using four different methods. We evaluate the performance of these methods using state-of-the-art prediction algorithms. The results show that all feature selection methods are able to identify small subsets of highly relevant features for electricity load forecasting. We then present a generic approach for very short term electricity load forecasting. It combines multilevel wavelet packet transform, a non-linear feature selection method based on mutual information, and machine learning prediction algorithms. The evaluation shows that the proposed approach is robust and outperforms several non-wavelet based approaches. We also propose a novel approach for forecasting the daily load profile. The proposed approach uses mutual information for feature selection and an ensemble of neural networks for building a prediction model. The evaluation using two years of electricity load data for Australia, Portugal and Spain shows that it provides accurate predictions. Finally, we present LUBEX, a neural networks based approach for forecasting prediction intervals to quantify the uncertainty associated with electricity load prediction. LUBEX extends an existing method (LUBE) by including an advanced feature selection method and using an ensemble of neural networks. A comprehensive evaluation using 24 different case studies shows that LUBEX is able to generate high quality prediction intervals.
Electricity load, Time series, Feature selection, Uncertainty, 621, Wavelet transform, Neural networks, Forecasting
Electricity load, Time series, Feature selection, Uncertainty, 621, Wavelet transform, Neural networks, Forecasting
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