Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a discipline used by decision makers to evaluate conflicting features when choosing among alternatives. MCDA methods are applied in the field of sustainable manufacturing to weigh the importance of traditional criteria when compared to sustainability indicators. However, a recurring issue in MCDA is the uncertainty in the assessments of alternatives. In this project, a novel framework to deal with uncertainty in MCDA has been developed. It uses scenario planning to get optimistic and pessimistic assessments for the different alternatives. Then, assigning probabilities to the scenarios and applying COPRAS-N, an introduced modification of COPRAS-G, 11 weighted scenarios are calculated. Finally, the relative significance and ranking of each alternative are graphed according to the weighted scenarios so that their evolution and the different situations are represented. With the presented approach, internal and external uncertainties can be dealt with at the same time. The final decision is made by analysing the graphics and results and, if necessary, looking at the concepts of expected scenario and average performance introduced in this project. The framework has been applied to 3 case studies with a focus on sustainability found in the literature. The results show that providing a final ranking of alternatives without considering other likely scenarios may lead to wrong decisions. In fact, in Case study 1, the choice of the best alternative would have changed if the developed framework had been applied. Representing all the scenarios has proved to ensure the final decision and enable to evaluate all the possible outcomes, solving in this way the uncertainty.

Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::9 - Indústria, Innovació i Infraestructura