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Comparación de la estimación de la volatilidad de una serie financiera, a través de la metodología del filtro de Kalman y el filtro de partículas en el contexto de los modelos de espacio-estado

Authors: Quispe Anastacio, Erick Mauricio;

Comparación de la estimación de la volatilidad de una serie financiera, a través de la metodología del filtro de Kalman y el filtro de partículas en el contexto de los modelos de espacio-estado

Abstract

Mediante un ejercicio comparativo, el objetivo del presente trabajo, es estimar la volatilidad de una serie financiera a través de dos algoritmos; el filtro de Kalman y el filtro de partículas, abordados en el contexto de los modelos de espacio de estado, y evaluar su capacidad para realizar estimaciones los más eficientes y fiables posibles. La serie financiera que se utiliza, es la serie del índice bursátil IBEX 35 , que es el índice de referencia de la bolsa española. La comparación de la estimación obtenida con ambos algoritmos, se realizará a través de una proxy de la volatilidad, que es el logaritmo de los rendimientos al cuadrado log(r_t^2 ); de esta forma se analiza que método aproxima de mejor manera el comportamiento de la volatilidad de la serie de estudio

Country
Spain
Keywords

Filtro de kalman, Máxima verosimilitud, Función de densidad posterior, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica, :Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Sequences (Mathematics), Seqüències (Matemàtica), Volatilidad, :62 Statistics::62L Sequential methods [Classificació AMS], Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62L Sequential methods, Filtro de partículas

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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