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Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

Authors: Luca Gambetti;

Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

Country
Spain
Keywords

VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters., Política fiscal, Pronòstic de l'economia, Despeses públiques, VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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