
handle: 2072/204096
This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.
VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters., Política fiscal, Pronòstic de l'economia, Despeses públiques, VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32
VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters., Política fiscal, Pronòstic de l'economia, Despeses públiques, VARs, fiscal policy, twin deficits, trade balance, Mundell-Fleming, forecast revisions, fiscal news, survey of professional forecasters, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32
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