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Analysis of the Fisher and Neo-Fisher Effects in Türkiye

Authors: Güvenoğlu, Hüseyin; Karahan, Özcan; BULDAÇ, Prof. Dr. Ayşe Nur BUYRUK AKBABA Assoc. Prof. Dr. Çiğdem BOGENÇ Assoc. Prof. Murat POLAT Assist. Prof. Dr. Merve; Güvenoğlu, Hüseyin; Karahan, Özcan;

Analysis of the Fisher and Neo-Fisher Effects in Türkiye

Abstract

The causal relationship between interest rates and inflation is highly debated in the literature. The Fisher approach argues that inflation expectations determine the nominal interest rate, whereas the Neo-Fisher approach contends that the level of the interest rate is a key determinant of inflation. This study aims to analyze the direction of the relationship between interest rates and inflation in Türkiye. In doing so, it seeks to contribute to the ongoing literature by offering evidence based on the Turkish experience regarding the interaction between inflation and interest rates. Using quarterly data for the period 2003–2024, the relationship between interest rates and inflation is examined through ARDL analysis. Thus, within the framework of the ARDL model, the validity of both the Fisher and Neo-Fisher hypotheses has been evaluated. The ARDL bounds test results indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation. The long-run coefficients and error-correction dynamics generally reveal that the classical Fisher effect is more dominant in Türkiye. The limited long-run evidence for the Neo-Fisher effect suggests that the level of the interest rate does not exert a persistent influence on inflation in Türkiye. This empirical finding indicates that nominal interest rates cannot be sustainably lowered without achieving a permanent decline in inflation. Therefore, monetary policy should shift its focus from the interest rate level to inflation dynamics and expectations management

Country
Turkey
Related Organizations
Keywords

Fisher Effect, Neo-Fisher Effec

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green