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Modelado de fenómenos migratorios

Authors: Barral Díaz, Adriana;

Modelado de fenómenos migratorios

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es revisar algunos de los modelos matemáticos propuestos para estudiar los fenómenos migratorios. Nos centraremos en aquellos modelos que estudian las migraciones humanas. Para ello, clasificaremos los modelos en cuatro grupos: modelos de Markov, modelos gravitatorios, modelos económicos y modelos basados en la ecuación maestra. A continuación, trataremos el modelo de radiación para migración humana, un modelo basado en los procesos de emisión y absorción. Se propuso con el fin de evitar las limitaciones de los modelos gravitatorios. Veremos que este modelo permite predecir los flujos migratorios entre dos regiones conociendo la población y el número total de emigrantes de ambas. También veremos el modelo de radiación generalizado, para tener en cuenta otros factores no económicos que influyen en la decisión de migrar. Estos dos últimos modelos los utilizaremos para realizar una simulación. En ella buscaremos predecir los flujos migratorios de este año entre las provincias españolas y compararemos los resultados obtenidos por ambas. Palabras clave: modelos de Markov, modelos gravitatorios, modelos económicos, modelos basados en la ecuación maestra, modelo de radiación, modelo de radiación generalizado.

Keywords

Gravitational models, 1208 Probabilidad, Markov models, Models based on master equation, Economic models, Generalized radiation model, 519.21, Radiation model, Probabilidades (Matemáticas)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green