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Predicción de valores en mercados financieros

Authors: Calvo González, Celia; Blanco Morago, Raquel;

Predicción de valores en mercados financieros

Abstract

En este trabajo se van a comparar diversos métodos para predecir el futuro de ciertos índices bursátiles a partir de los datos históricos de otros o de él mismo. En concreto, se seleccionan uno índices bursátiles a los que se les aplican distintos experimentos. En primer lugar, utilizamos el método ARIMA, en el cual se utiliza el pasado de la misma serie temporal de la cual se quiere predecir el futuro y se compara con el sencillo método de Naïve, consistente en proyectar el último valor conocido. Posteriormente, se realizan experimentos con distintos métodos de regresión (Regresión Lineal, Gradient Boosting Regressor, Random Forest Regressor y Voting Regressor) utilizando incrementos en lugar de los valores reales, para lo que es necesario hacer un preajuste de los datos de entrada. Además, incorporamos varias variables independientes para mejorar la predicción. Como último método de predicción se realiza un experimento utilizando redes neuronales, en concreto se trata de percepción multicapa con backpropagation. Finalmente, se comparan y analizan los resultados de todos estos métodos a través de las medidas de error típicas y se exponen las conclusiones finales.

Keywords

Informática, Series temporales, Time series, Stock market, Informática (Informática), Regresión, Redes neuronales, ARIMA, Índices bursátiles, RMSE, Regression, 004 (043.3), Predicción, Forecast, 1203.17 Informática, Neural networks

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green