
handle: 20.500.12432/1436
The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the VIX (Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index) fear index on the international financial markets and the Consumer Confidence Index, which determines the general economic trend of consumers in our country, to the BIST Investment Trust Index. Regression, correlation and VAR analyzes were applied with the monthly time series covering the period 01.01.2004 - 31.12.2017. When regression analysis is done, the model Y = -38057,202-372,738 * Fear Index (VIX) -156,474 * Consumer Confidence Index is a negative correlation between the BIST Securities Investment Trust Index and the Fear Index (VIX) and the Consumer Confidence Index. When the correlation analysis is performed, the relationship between the BIST Investment Trust Index and the Fear Index (VIX) is 62.3% in the negative direction, the relationship between BIST Investment Trust Index and the Consumer Confidence Index is 3.8% in the negative direction, and between the Fear Index (VIX) and the Consumer Confidence Index is 38% in the negative direction. A one-way causality from the BIST Securities Investment Trust Index to the Fear Index (VIX) has emerged with the VAR analysis. As a result, investors in our national securities market are likely to be able to use the VIX fear index and the Consumer Confidence Index as guidelines to get high returns at the right time. According to these two indices, the forecast will reduce the risk of losing for the actors investing in Istanbul Stock Exchange. In addition, it has emerged that the fear index (VIX) and the Consumer Confidence Index data can be used to make predictions about future periods for actors who want to invest in the capital market.
BIST Investment Trust Index, Causality, Relationship, Consumer Trust Index, The Fear Index (VIX)
BIST Investment Trust Index, Causality, Relationship, Consumer Trust Index, The Fear Index (VIX)
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