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Predictors of preterm birth in birth certificate data.

Authors: Karen L. Courtney; Sara Stewart; Mihail Popescu; Linda K. Goodwin;

Predictors of preterm birth in birth certificate data.

Abstract

Demographic factors have been shown to be moderate predictors of preterm birth in prior studies which used hospital databases and epidemiologic sample surveys. This retrospective study used de-identified 2003 North Carolina birth certificate data (n=73,040) and replicated the statistical and computational methods used in a prior study of an academic medical center's data warehouse. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare results across methods. Due to differences between the data collected for birth certificates and the original clinical database, five of the seven demographic variables in the clinical database model were available for model testing (maternal age, marital status, race/ethnicity, education and county). Even with a reduced model, multiple methods of statistical and computational modeling supported the earlier findings of demographic predictors for preterm birth. The reduced model AUC results were acceptable (logistic regression = 0.605, neural networks = 0.57, SVM = 0.57, Bayesian classifiers = 0.59, and CART = 0.56), but lower than in the prior study as might be expected for a reduced model. On a population level, these results support a prior demographic predictor preterm birth model generated from a clinical database and the use of computational methods for model formation. Additional testing for stronger predictor models within birth certificate data is suggested as birth certificate data is a parsimonious population dataset already routinely collected.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Electronic Data Processing, Infant, Newborn, Bayes Theorem, Decision Support Techniques, Obstetric Labor, Premature, ROC Curve, Pregnancy, Risk Factors, Birth Certificates, North Carolina, Humans, Computer Simulation, Female, Neural Networks, Computer, Mathematical Computing, Demography, Retrospective Studies

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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