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UK in or UK out? : a common cycle analysis between the UK and the Euro zone

Authors: Julien Garnier;

UK in or UK out? : a common cycle analysis between the UK and the Euro zone

Abstract

We use a structural model estimated by the Kalman filter in order to extract the common cycle for different groups of OECD countries. We try to evaluate to what extent the Euro zone common cycle is affected by the inclusion of the UK into the group. An important result of this work is that adding the UK to the Euro group does not lead to a greater heterogeneity of the group as a whole. Besides, the UK business cycle is not much different from Euro zone cycles. Another point is that the influence of the UK on the `Euro plus UK' common cycle is less obvious for output than for consumption, public expenditures or investment series. This suggests the importance of taking into account the components of output when analysing business cycles.

Country
Italy
Related Organizations
Keywords

Euro area;EMS;Optimum currency area;Monetary integration;Monetary system;Monetary block, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:F40, jel: jel:F02

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green