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VIX endeksi ve CDS primlerinin BİST-30 ve KAT-30 endekslerine etkisinin incelenmesi

Authors: Bayramlı, Javidan;

VIX endeksi ve CDS primlerinin BİST-30 ve KAT-30 endekslerine etkisinin incelenmesi

Abstract

COVID-19, which has surrounded the world as a global epidemic that started in 2019, has caused great damage to the economies of countries. Based on this, the effect of CDS premium and VIX index on BIST-30 and Participation-30 index before and during the pandemic period in the study, If there is an effect, is intended to determine the dimensions of this effect, that is, to find out whether the CDS premium and VIX index affect the BIST-30 index or the Participation-30 index more. Knowing how these indices interact before and during the pandemic period and the results from the study will be a guide for investors, and the fact that such a comparison has not yet been made increases the importance of the research. In this dissertation, the relationship between variables using the CDS premiums, VIX, BIST-30 and KAT-30 indices was divided into three groups and into two periods, before the pandemic and pandemic period. The date range is determined as the pre-pandemic period as 02.01.2018-10.03.2020 and the pandemic period as 11.03.2020-31.12.21. FMOLS regression testing was used to determine the impact relationship between variables with Johansen Combination and ARDL approach. As a result of the harmonization tests, the long-term co-ordination relationship was determined between the CDS premiums and the VIX index and the BIST-30 both Participation-30 indices during the pre-pandemic and pandemic period. As a result of the FMOLS regression test to determine the level of impact, it was observed that the effect of the CDS premium and VIX index on the Participation-30 index was greater before and during the pandemic period.

2019`da başlayan küresel salgın olarak tüm dünyayı saran COVİD-19, ülkelerin ekonomilerinde büyük ölçüde zarara neden olmuştur. Buradan yola çıkarak, çalışmada pandemi öncesinde ve pandemi döneminde CDS primi ve VIX endeksinin BİST-30 ve Katılım-30 endeksi üzerine etkisini, etki var ise bu etkinin boyutlarını belirlemeyi yani CDS primi ve VIX endeksinin BİST-30 endeksini mi yoksa Katılım-30 endeksini mi daha çok etkilediğini bulmayı amaçlanmıştır. Pandemi öncesi ve pandemi döneminde bu endekslerin nasıl etkileşim içerisinde olduğunu bilmek ve çalışmadan çıkan sonuçların yatırımcılar için yol gösterici olacağını, böyle bir karşılaştırmanın henüz yapılmamış olması araştırmanın önemini artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada CDS primleri, VIX, BİST-30 ve KAT-30 endeksleri kullanılarak değişkenler arasındakı ilişki üçer gruplar halinde, iki döneme ayrılarak pandemi öncesi ve pandemi dönemi olmak üzere incelenmiştir. Tarih aralığı ise pandemi öncesi dönemi 02.01.2018-10.03.2020 olarak, pandemi dönemi ise 11.03.2020-31.12.21 olarak belirlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisini Johansen Eşbütünleşme ve ARDL yaklaşımı ile etki oranlarını belirlemek için ise FMOLS regresyon testi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme testleri sonucunda pandemi öncesi ve pandemi döneminde CDS primleri ve VIX endeksi ile hem BİST-30 hemde Katılım-30 endeksleri arasında uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisi belirlenmiştir.Etki düzeyinin belirlemek için yapılan FMOLS regresyon testi sonucunda pandemi öncesi ve pandemi döneminde CDS primi ve VIX endeksinin Katılım-30 endeksine etkisinin daha büyük olduğu görülmüştür.

Country
Turkey
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Keywords

Maliye, İşletme, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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