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Multiple Population Projections by Lee Carter Models

Authors: RUSSOLILLO, Maria; D'AMATO, VALERIA; S. Haberman; G. Piscopo; L. Trapani;

Multiple Population Projections by Lee Carter Models

Abstract

The academic literature in longevity field has recently focused on models for detecting multiple population trends ([9],[17],[20], etc.). In particular increasing interest has been shown about “related” population dynamics or “parent” populations characterized by similar socio-economic conditions and eventually also by geographical proximity. These studies suggest dependence across multiple populations and common long run relationships between countries (for instance see [13]). In order to investigate cross-country longevity common trends, we adopt a multiple population approach. The algorithm we propose retains the parametric structure of the Lee Carter model, extending the basic framework to include some cross dependence in the error term. As far as time dependence is concerned, we allow for all idiosyncratic components (both in the common stochastic trend and in the error term) to follow a linear process, thus considering a highly flexible specification for the serial dependence structure of our data. We also relax the assumption of normality, which is typical of early studies on mortality [14] and on factor models (see e.g. the textbook by [1]). The empirical results show that the Multiple Lee Carter Approach works well in presence of dependence.

Country
Italy
Keywords

mortality projections, mortality projections, dependence, Lee Carte model, dependence, Lee Carte model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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