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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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North Atlantic Oscillation index stochastic modeling

Authors: MASALA, GIOVANNI BATISTA;

North Atlantic Oscillation index stochastic modeling

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index plays a crucial role in the climatic evolution of the Northern Hemisphere. Predicting NAO evolution is very challenging due to the large number of physical processes that influence it. Quantitative surveys have tried to detect possible long-term trends or periodic features in the NAO evolution. In this study, we implement a stochastic model that is able to replicate the statistical characteristics of the NAO index, based on a non-homogeneous semi-Markov Model. For this purpose, we set up two states of the process, namely positive and negative NAO values. We also analyse positive and negative sequences of NAO values. The model characteristics are estimated using daily real values during the period 1950-2013 and we lastly implement a Monte Carlo procedure in order to simulate daily NAO values covering a 1-year time horizon. Next, this model is compared with a typical ARMA-GARCH model used in time series analysis, which appears to be underperforming, in contrast with the semi-Markov one.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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