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Mortality neural forecasting

Authors: MARINO, MARIO;

Mortality neural forecasting

Abstract

Predicting mortality is a major challenge for both demographers and actuaries. The latter need to anticipate various future mortality scenarios with the greatest possible accuracy, as in the case of annuities pricing and longevity risk assessments. However, the current wide range of stochastic mortality models highlights some deficiencies in predicting future mortality realizations, particularly when accelerations or decelerations of longevity occur. The aim of this research thesis is to investigate the adequacy of a new mortality forecasting approach based on artificial Neural Networks. To this end, after an examination of the theoretical Neural Networks fundamentals, the present work shows the Neural Networks competitiveness in predicting the future dynamics of human mortality, also allowing the efficacy of already existing predictive models, such as the canonical Lee-Carter model. Therefore, our data-driven proposal contributes to the mortality literature as new advance in mortality forecasting, that is the neural forecasting approach.

Country
Italy
Related Organizations
Keywords

Mortality forecasting; neural networks; life expectancy; deep learning integrated model

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green