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BORSA İSTANBUL PAY ENDEKSLERİNİN VOLATİLİTE YAPISI VE VOLATİLİTE YAYILIMI: GARCH VE MGARCH MODELLERİ İLE BIST SINAİ VE MALİ ENDEKSLERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Authors: Topaloğlu, Emre Esat;

BORSA İSTANBUL PAY ENDEKSLERİNİN VOLATİLİTE YAPISI VE VOLATİLİTE YAYILIMI: GARCH VE MGARCH MODELLERİ İLE BIST SINAİ VE MALİ ENDEKSLERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Çalışmada, Borsa İstanbul Sınai ve Mali endekslerinin 14.03.2001-10.08.2018 dönemine ilişkin günlük kapanış değerleri doğrultusunda volatilite yapılarını ortaya çıkarmak ve iki endeks arasındaki volatilite yayılımını tespit etmek amaçlanmıştır. Endekslerin simetrik ve asimetrik durumları ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, PARCH ve TARCH modelleri ile araştırılmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra endeksler arasındaki volatilite yayılımı, çok değişkenli MGARCH modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Buna göre sınai endeksinde volatiliteye etki eden şokların kalıcı bir etki yaratmadığı, volatilitenin yoğunlukla bir önceki dönem şoklardan kaynaklandığı ve sınai endeksine gelen bir şokun etkisinin 22.28 gün sürdüğü tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan mali endekste ortaya çıkan negatif bir şok, pozitif şoka göre daha fazla etki yapmaktadır. Dolayısıyla kaldıraç etkisinin var olduğu ve negatif şokun etkisinin 25.81 gün sürdüğü ortaya çıkarılmıştır. MGARCH modeli sonucunda ise sınai endeksinde meydana gelen bir şokun, mali endekste gerçekleşen bir şoktan daha büyük olduğu, sistemdeki şokun etkisinin mali endekste daha çok kaldığı ve uzun hafıza özelliği gösterdiği belirlenmiştir. Bunun yanı sıra mali endeksten sınai endeksine doğru pozitif yönde bir volatilite yayılımının varlığı da tespit edilmiştir.

The aim of this study is to determine the spillover of the Borsa İstanbul Industrial and Financial indexes the period of 14.03.2001-10.08.2018 with the closing and latest indexes. the symmetric and asymmetric states of indexes have been examined by ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, PARCH and TARCH models. Besides, the volatility spillover between the indexes is analyzed by the multivariate MGARCH model. According to this, it has been determined that the shocks affecting the volatility in the industrial index do not have a lasting effect, the volatility originates from the shocks of the previous period and the shock effect to the industrial index lasts 22.28 days. On the other hand, a negative shock in the financial index is more effective than positive shock. Therefore, it was found that the effect of leverage and the effect of negative shock lasted for 25.81 days. As a result of the MGARCH model, it has been determined that a shock in the industrial index is larger than a shock that the financial index is realized, that the shock effect in the system remained more financial index and showed a long memory characteristic. Besides, the existence of a volatility spread in the positive direction towards the financial indices industrial index has also been determined.

Country
Turkey
Keywords

Borsa Istanbul, Volatilite, GARCH Models, Volatilite Yayılımı, Volatility, Borsa İstanbul, GARCH Modelleri, AVolatilite, Volatility Spillover

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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