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Bankaların tahvil ihraçlarının pay getirilerine etkisinin panel veri analizi ve Granger nedensellik analiziyle incelenmesi

Examining the effect of banks’ bond issues on stock returns with panel data analysis and Granger causality analysis
Authors: Kaplan, Bilge;

Bankaların tahvil ihraçlarının pay getirilerine etkisinin panel veri analizi ve Granger nedensellik analiziyle incelenmesi

Abstract

Dünyada gelişen teknolojinin de büyük oranda etkisiyle her alanda olduğu gibi finansal piyasalar da değişmekte ve gelişmektedir. Bu durum dolayısıyla tüm dünyada bireyleri, işletmeleri ve devletleri etkilemektedir. Finansal piyasalarda pay getirileri birçok değişkenden etkilenebilmektedir. Bu konuda araştırmalar yapılmaya devam edilmekte ve çoğu sektörde önem arz etmektedir. Gelişen ve değişen ekonomik durum içerisinde bankalar gibi önemli kuruluşlar için de pay getirileri üzerinde durulması gereken etkenlere sahiptir. Dolayısıyla bankaların ihraç etmiş oldukları menkul kıymet özelinde tahvillerin pay getirilerini ne yönde ve ne denli etkilediği çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle kavramsal çerçevede açıklamalar yapılmıştır. Teorik olarak finansal piyasalar hakkında bilgi verilmeye çalışılmış, ardından banka ve bankacılık sektörü açıklanmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı gereği tahvil konusu açıklanmıştır. Devamında 2012 ve 2019 yılları arasında aralıksız tahvil ihracında bulunan 8 bankanın verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Panel veri analiziyle yapılan testler sonucunda tahvil ihraçları ile ortalama pay getirileri arasında anlamlı ilişki bulunamamış olmasıyla Granger nedensellik analizine tabi tutulmuştur. VAR Granger nedensellik analizine göre panel veri analizinin aksine banka tahvil ihraçları ile ortalama pay getirileri arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespitine ulaşılmıştır.

Financial markets are changing and developing, as in every field, largely due to the developing technology in the world. Therefore, this situation affects individuals, businesses and governments all over the world. Stock returns in financial markets can be affected by many variables. Research continues on this subject and it is important in most sectors. In the developing and changing economic situation, stock returns have factors that need to be focused on for important institutions such as banks. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to what extent and how the bonds affect the stock returns specific to the securities issued by banks. In this study firstly, explanations are made in the conceptual framework. Theoretically, it was tried to give information about financial markets, then the banking and banking sector was explained. For the purpose of the study, the subject of bonds has been explained. Then, panel data analysis was performed using the data of 8 banks that issued bonds continuously between 2012 and 2019. As a result of the tests conducted with the panel data analysis, no significant relationship was found between bond issues and average share returns, so Granger was subjected to causality analysis. According to the VAR Granger causality analysis unlike the panel data analysis, it was determined that there is a one-way causality relationship between bank bond issues and average stock returns.

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Turkey
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Keywords

Panel Veri, Bond Issuance, 330, Finansal Piyasalar, Bankacılık Sektörü, Panel Data, Banking Sector, Stock Return, Granger Nedensellik Analizi, Granger Causality Analysis, Tahvil İhracı, Pay Getirisi, Financial Markets

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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