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The determinants of stock market index: VAR approach to Turkish stock market

Authors: BAŞÇI, Eşref Savaş; KARACA, Süleyman Serdar;

The determinants of stock market index: VAR approach to Turkish stock market

Abstract

In this paper, we examined the relationship between ISE 100 Index and a set of four macroeconomic variables using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Variables we used in our model are Exchange, Gold, Import, Export and ISE 100 Index. ISE 100 Index is a dependent variable and the others are independent variables. In this study we used 190 observations for the sample period from January, 1996 to October, 2011. All variables have seasonal movements. After seasonal adjustments, all series have had stationary in their first difference. After determining optimal lag order, it was given one standard deviation shock for each series and their response. And in variance decomposition carried out subsequently, it has been determined that especially as of the second default of exchange, it was explained 31% by share indices. © 2013, Econjournals. All rights reserved.

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Turkey
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Keywords

Macroeconomic Variables; VAR Model; Impulse Response Analysis; Variance Decomposition; Turkey, Impulse Response Analysis, Turkey, Macroeconomic Variables;VAR Model;Impulse Response Analysis;Variance Decomposition;Turkey, Variance Decomposition, Macroeconomic Variables, VAR Model, jel: jel:G17, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C58

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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