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Portföy yönetiminde risk analizi

Authors: Cevizci, Aylin;

Portföy yönetiminde risk analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma Markowitz Ortalama- Varyans Modeli' ni BIST30 Şirketleri üzerinde test etmektedir. Bilindiği gibi, kısıtlanmamış Markowitz optimizasyonu en etkin portföyleri oluşturmaktadır ancak bu optimizasyonun gerektirdiği yüksek miktardaki açığa satış, bu uygulamayı istikrarsız ve uygulanamaz bir hale getirmektedir. Bu nedenle açığa satışın kısıtlanmış olduğu bir Markowitz optimizasyonu çeyrek dönemler halinde düzenlenmiş günlük dataya uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, uzun vadede tek bir optimal portföy olamayacağını göstermektedir. Her çeyrekte oluşan optimal portföy, yeni varlıklar içermekte ve eski varlıkların portföy içindeki ağırlıklarını ciddi şekilde değiştirmektedir. Her bir çeyrek yıldaki getiri ve risk birbirinden çok farklıdır. Ayrıca oluşturulan optimal portföylerin Sharpe rasyoları da sabit olmayıp dönemden döneme ciddi değişmeler göstermektedirler. Araştırma dönemi içerisinde elde edilen portföylerin getirileri ve riskleri arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

This study tests the Markowitz optimization model on BIST30 companies. Unrestricted Markowitz optimization generates most efficient portfolios, however, high ratio of short- selling makes such portfolios unstable and unapplicable. Thus, short- sales restricted Markowitz optimization is used to generate optimal portfolios in a quarterly frequency. The findings show that there is no single optimal portfolio for a long time. Each quarter optimal portfolio is renewed by new assets and new weights of remaining assets. Returns and risk vary significantly among quarters. It is also not possible to have a stable Sharpe ratio among the optimal portfolios. There is no significant relation between return and risk of optimal portfolios for the whole period

85

Country
Turkey
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Keywords

Portföy yönetimi, Economics, Portfolio management, Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Statistics, Mean variance portfolio theory, Political risk, Risk portfolio management, Industrial and Industrial Engineering, Interest risk, Risk management, İstatistik, Currency risk, Risk yönetimi, Ekonomi, Modern portfolio theory

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green