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Risk analizi: Türkiye’de gerçekleşen trafik kazaları üzerine hata ağacı analizi uygulaması

Authors: Şenel, Bilgin; Şenel, Mine;

Risk analizi: Türkiye’de gerçekleşen trafik kazaları üzerine hata ağacı analizi uygulaması

Abstract

Traffic accidents is emerging as a significant risk that affects entire population in both developed and deve- loping countries. Increasing use of motor vehicles, as a result of widespread use of highways for transportation and the developments in automotive sector is enhancing the risk of accidents. In this study, it is aimed to find risk factors in traffic accident and risk degree of these risk factors using traffic accident statistics betwe- en the years 2001-2007 obtained from TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute). For this purpose, using the fault tree analysis methodology, for each fault the probability of occurance of traffic accident as the main event, for each fault is revealed by risk factors and their interac- tion degrees. The result of this research shows that the order of degrees of 3-type-faults which were determined by TUIK traffic accident data, as follows: environmental faults, personal faults and vehicle-origin-faults. As a general result the risk for traffic accidents in Turkey, when each of 3 fault types are taken into consideration, has been calculated as 57,34%.

Trafik kazaları, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler- de, tüm nüfusu etkileyen önemli risk olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ulaşımda kara yollarının yaygın olarak kullanılması ve otomotiv sektöründeki gelişmeler so- nucu yaygınlaşan motorlu taşıt kullanımı, kaza riskini daha da artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, TÜİK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu)’den elde edilen 2001-2007 yılları arasındaki kaza istatistikleri kullanılarak trafikte risk faktörleri ve bu risk faktörlerinin risk derecelerinin be- lirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla hata ağaç analizi metodolojisi kullanılarak, belirlenen risk faktörleri ve birbirleri ile etkileşim dereceleri üzerinden ana olay olarak belirlenen trafik kazasının her bir hata türü için oluşma olasılığı ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışma sonu- cunda TUİK trafik kazaları verilerine göre belirlenen üç hata türü etki derecesi sıralaması çevresel hata, ki- şisel hatalar ve araç hataları şeklindedir. Genel sonuç olarak Türkiye’de trafik kazaları riski her üç hata türü hesaba katıldığında %57,34 olarak belirlenmiştir.

Country
Turkey
Related Organizations
Keywords

Risk Analizi, Fault Tree Analysis, Traffic Accidents, Hata Ağaç Analizi, Trafik Kazaları, Disiplinler Arası, Olasılık, Risk Analysis, Sosyal Bilimler, Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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