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Comportamiento estructural y predictivo de variables macroecónomicas: combinando MEEGD y VAR

Authors: Barráez Guzmán, Daniel; Perdomo León, Mariela;

Comportamiento estructural y predictivo de variables macroecónomicas: combinando MEEGD y VAR

Abstract

En este trabajo, se estima conjuntamente mediante métodos bayesianos un VAR y un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general dinámico (MEEGD) para la economía venezolana. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el VAR estimado tiene un mejor desempeño predictivo que los VAR tradicionalmente utilizados. La respuesta del MEEGD a un shock monetario y su mecanismo de transmisión es acorde con la teoría económica, contrae el producto y esta contracción reduce la inflación. Está técnica de estimación es lo suficientemente robusta para aplicar en economías que no exhiben un comportamiento estable. In this paper, we estimate at the same time a VAR and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Venezuelan economy using Bayesian methods. The results show that the estimated VAR has a better predictive performance than traditional VAR. The DSGE response to a monetary shock and its transmission mechanism agree with economic theory, the product shrinks and this reduces inflation. The estimation technique is robust enough to deal with economies that do not have a stable behavior. Neste trabalho, estima-se conjuntamente mediante métodos bayesianos um VAR e um modelo estocástico de equilíbrio geral dinâmico (MEEGD) para a economia venezuelana. Os resultados obtidos mostram que o VAR estimado tem um maior desempenho preditivo que os VAR tradicionalmente usados. A resposta do MEEGD a um shock temporal e seu mecanismo de transmissão é acorde com a teoria econômica, contrai o produto e esta contração diminui a inflação. Esta técnica de estimação é o suficientemente robusta para aplicar em economias que não exibem um comportamento estável.

Country
Colombia
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Keywords

Modelo estocástico de equilibrio general dinámico, estimación bayesiana, forecast, estimação bayesiana, Modelo estocástico de equilíbrio geral dinâmico, VAR, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, predição, predicción, bayesian estimation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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