Lee Carter mortality forecasting: application to the Italian population
Lee Carter mortality forecasting: application to the Italian population
In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using the Lee-Carter methodology to construct mortality forecasts for the Italian population. We fit the model to the matrix of Italian death rates for each gender from 1950 to 2000. A time-varying index of mortality is forecasted in an ARIMA framework and is used to generate projected life tables. In particular we focus on life expectancies at birth and, for the purpose of comparison, we introduce an alternative approach for forecasting life expectancies on a period basis. The resulting forecasts generated by the two methods are then compared.
- City St George’s, University of London United Kingdom
- Università degli studi di Salerno Italy
life expectancy, mortality forecasting, time series, Lee-Carter methodology, HG
life expectancy, mortality forecasting, time series, Lee-Carter methodology, HG
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