Statistical forecasting of daily temperatures

The behaviour of the daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures was already found to be given by the sum of a deterministic function of the day and a stationary normal process with zero mean. Its standard deviations for the three temperatures observed in the period 1892-1974 are given. This is a measure of the error in the long term prediction of daily temperatures. The normal process is found to be well represented by an autoregressive- moving average process.

Country

Italy

Related Organizations

University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
Italy

Keywords

Temperature; statistical model; forecast

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