Nowadays, long welded railway rails are achieved by means of aluminothermic and flush-butt welding processes. Compared to bolted joints, welds proved to be effective in terms of reduced wheel damage, ride comfort and maintenance. However, even if the event is inexplicably not considered in relevant standards, surface cracks often initiate within the welded and the heat affected regions of the foot, leading to brittle failure. On the subject, a recent work developed a probabilistic methodology for determining day-by-day failure probability. However, apart from this structural integrity study and few others, a complete damage tolerance approach should also consider the capability of nondestructive inspections. The latter is recognized as an essential input to define maintenance inspection intervals. The present work is focused on the capability assessment of Phased Array ultrasonic inspection applied to aluminothermic-welded joints by means of Probability of Detection curves, as a result of experimental and Model Assisted data samples.