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Model Estimates of the Output Gap

Authors: Hagelund, Kåre; Hansen, Frank; Robstad, Ørjan;

Model Estimates of the Output Gap

Abstract

This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, house prices and credit growth. As the output gap cannot be observed, there is no direct way of evaluating the estimated output gap. Criteria for a good estimate of the output gap can, however, be the extent to which the output gap estimates provide information about future developments in GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. Measured this way, the models have good forecasting properties compared with simple trend estimations solely based on GDP data. The forecasting properties for an average of the models are shown to be better than for each individual model. The models' estimates of the output gap also have relatively good real-time properties.

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VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210, ddc:330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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