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Evaluación del modelo de inflación objetivo en Colombia con la metodología de vectores autoregresivos empleando pronósticos y series de tiempo

Authors: Pardo Pardo, German Oswaldo;

Evaluación del modelo de inflación objetivo en Colombia con la metodología de vectores autoregresivos empleando pronósticos y series de tiempo

Abstract

El objetivo principal del presente trabajo de grado, es determinar si la estrategia de inflación objetivo ha modificado la estructura economía del país, al provocar un cambio estructural en la manera como las principales variables teóricas se relacionan. Para ello, se empleó técnicas de series de tiempo, principalmente modelos de vectores autorregresivos y posteriormente dos pruebas de cambio estructural. La primera es la prueba de Chow que es una prueba típica para estos objetivos y la segunda la prueba del estadístico de máxima verosimilitud. El vector autorregresivo está compuesto de cuatro variables: tipo de cambio, una variable aproximada del Producto Interno Bruto de Colombia, la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República y la inflación. Las variables tienen una periodicidad mensual y cubren el periodo 1995M04 hasta 2015M05. Los resultados de la regresión permiten concluir que la adopción de la estrategia de inflación objetivo, sí representó un cambio estructural para la economía colombiana ayudando a mantener baja y estable la inflación.

Country
Colombia
Related Organizations
Keywords

Análisis de series de tiempo, Análisis vectorial, Modelos econométricos, Análisis de regresión - Modelos matemáticos

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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Green