
handle: 10986/34262
The expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis states that fiscal austerity can increase output or consumption when a country is under heavy debt burdens because it sends positive signal about the country's solvency situation and long-term economic wellbeing. Empirical tests of this hypothesis have suffered from identification concerns due to data sources and empirical methodology. Using a sample of OECD countries between 1978 and 2014, this paper combines new IMF narrative data and the proxy structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) method to examine whether fiscal austerities can be expansionary when debt levels are high. Fiscal austerities are measured as 1) narrative fiscal shocks and 2) structural shocks from a proxy SVAR. Additionally, this paper uses a model-based approach to determine the cutoff debt level beyond which EFC is expected to be observed. This paper finds empirical evidence in support of the EFC hypothesis for OECD countries: results for output are driven by changes in tax rates and are robust to how one defines a high-debt regime and how one measures austerity.
FISCAL POLICY, DEBT BURDEN, 330, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, FISCAL SHOCK, STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION, AUSTERITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC SHOCK, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
FISCAL POLICY, DEBT BURDEN, 330, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, FISCAL SHOCK, STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION, AUSTERITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC SHOCK, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
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