Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels
Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels
This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.
- World Bank United States
MEASURES, REGIONAL ANALYSIS, POOR POPULATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXTREME POVERTY, WELFARE MEASURE, DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, MARKET ECONOMIES, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, POLICY MAKERS, POOR, INCOME, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, POVERTY RATES, PRO- POOR, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, POVERTY, CHANGES IN POVERTY, PRO-POOR GROWTH, POOR GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, WELFARE INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, GROWTH, WAR, FOOD ITEMS, 330, REDUCING POVERTY, PRIMARY EDUCATION, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, WELFARE MEASURES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, REGIONAL AVERAGES, REGIONAL AVERAGE, DEVELOPING WORLD, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, INCOME INEQUALITY, REGIONAL CONTEXT, INCOME CHANGE, FOOD POVERTY LINE, CONSUMPTION, REGIONAL PRICE, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, POVERTY REDUCTION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, INCOME LEVELS, MEASURING POVERTY, REGIONAL LEVEL, CHRONIC POVERTY, INCOME REGIONS, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, ANNUAL GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOMES, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, INEQUALITY, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, RURAL RESIDENCE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CONSUMPTION DATA, PRODUCT, POVERTY SITUATION, NON-POOR GROUP, TOTAL POVERTY, DISAGGREGATED LEVEL, PRO-POOR, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, POOR POLICY, POVERTY DYNAMICS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, NATIONAL POVERTY, POVERTY STATUS, INCOME POVERTY, COUNTRY LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD DATA, REGIONS, REGIONAL POPULATION, NATIONAL POVERTY LINES, HUMAN CAPITAL, POOR PEOPLE, POPULATION SHARE, POPULATION GROUP, DATA QUALITY, RURAL AREA, SOCIAL PROTECTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE, ABSOLUTE POVERTY, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POLICY RESEARCH, REGION, PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS, CHRONICALLY POOR, GROWTH RATE, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, QUALITY OF LIFE, INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, POVERTY LINES, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, ECONOMICS, ESTIMATION RESULTS, FOOD POVERTY, CAPITA INCOMES, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, RURAL, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, MIDDLE CLASS, POVERTY LINE, CAPITA INCOME, INDICATORS OF POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, SCHOOLING, POVERTY RATE
MEASURES, REGIONAL ANALYSIS, POOR POPULATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXTREME POVERTY, WELFARE MEASURE, DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, MARKET ECONOMIES, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, POLICY MAKERS, POOR, INCOME, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, POVERTY RATES, PRO- POOR, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, POVERTY, CHANGES IN POVERTY, PRO-POOR GROWTH, POOR GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, WELFARE INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, GROWTH, WAR, FOOD ITEMS, 330, REDUCING POVERTY, PRIMARY EDUCATION, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, WELFARE MEASURES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, REGIONAL AVERAGES, REGIONAL AVERAGE, DEVELOPING WORLD, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, INCOME INEQUALITY, REGIONAL CONTEXT, INCOME CHANGE, FOOD POVERTY LINE, CONSUMPTION, REGIONAL PRICE, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, POVERTY REDUCTION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, INCOME LEVELS, MEASURING POVERTY, REGIONAL LEVEL, CHRONIC POVERTY, INCOME REGIONS, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, ANNUAL GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOMES, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, INEQUALITY, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, RURAL RESIDENCE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CONSUMPTION DATA, PRODUCT, POVERTY SITUATION, NON-POOR GROUP, TOTAL POVERTY, DISAGGREGATED LEVEL, PRO-POOR, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, POOR POLICY, POVERTY DYNAMICS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, NATIONAL POVERTY, POVERTY STATUS, INCOME POVERTY, COUNTRY LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD DATA, REGIONS, REGIONAL POPULATION, NATIONAL POVERTY LINES, HUMAN CAPITAL, POOR PEOPLE, POPULATION SHARE, POPULATION GROUP, DATA QUALITY, RURAL AREA, SOCIAL PROTECTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE, ABSOLUTE POVERTY, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POLICY RESEARCH, REGION, PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS, CHRONICALLY POOR, GROWTH RATE, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, QUALITY OF LIFE, INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, POVERTY LINES, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, ECONOMICS, ESTIMATION RESULTS, FOOD POVERTY, CAPITA INCOMES, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, RURAL, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, MIDDLE CLASS, POVERTY LINE, CAPITA INCOME, INDICATORS OF POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, SCHOOLING, POVERTY RATE
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