Rising Tempers, Rising Temperatures
Rising Tempers, Rising Temperatures
Section one of the papers provides a brief overview of the relationship between the Sahel region of Africa and climate variability trends and predictions, ultimately posing the primary research question of the study: Is the Sahel region more likely to have a higher probability of conflict and migration as a result of climate change and climate change-related events? In section two, research and analysis aim to identify causal paths between climate change, migration, and conflict via structural equation modeling focusing on recent climate change trends in the Africa and Sahel regions, particularly changes in temperature and rainfall, and analyzing the consequences of this climate variabil¬ity, namely migration and conflict. Section three brings the aspect of youth into the analysis, arguing that youth living in the rural Sahel region will likely find themselves particularly vulnerable to in¬creased climate change and variability, which will have direct and indirect implications on the security and livelihoods of these individuals. The paper explores the past, current and predicted issues faced by rural Sahel youth affected by the impacts of climate change, such as chronic unemployment and engagement in the illicit sector due to rural to urban migration from regions affected by drought, desertification and resource scarcity. The final section of the paper offers policy recommen¬dations for addressing negative climate-change related consequences through two key paths of intervention: (i) climate change adaptation measures and (ii) conflict and crime prevention measures.
- World Bank United States
CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, CLIMATE CHANGES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS, DRUG TRAFFICKING, YOUNG PEOPLE, NUMBER OF MIGRANTS, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME WEATHER, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES, RAINFALL, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION, REGIONAL STRATEGY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, MIGRANTS, UNEMPLOYMENT, INCOME, CLIMATE-CHANGE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, LOCAL CAPACITY, CIVIL WAR, TERRORIST, SCIENCE, JOBS, PREVENTION STRATEGIES, 320, PER CAPITA INCOME, DISEASES, RISK FACTORS, POPULATIONS, WAR, CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, POPULATION MIGRATION, 330, REGIONAL CLIMATE, MODELS, MEAN TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL PATTERNS, DEMOCRACY, WEATHER PATTERNS, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CAPACITY, CLIMATE RISK, ARMED CONFLICT, FINANCE, PEACE, FORCED MIGRATION, COLORS, MALARIA, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS, SURFACE WATER, RURAL AREAS, PROGRESS, VULNERABILITY, LABOR MARKET, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES, EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTER, RAIN, WORKSHOP, POPULATION DATA, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, WARS, SCARCITIES, MARKET, MIGRATION POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATE TRENDS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT, LIFESTYLES, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CIVIL CONFLICT, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE, POPULATION INCREASES, MINORITY, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, AVERAGE RAINFALL, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, TEMPERATURES, HOUSEHOLD ASSETS, TEMPERATURE, LIFE SKILLS, DROUGHT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, DESERTIFICATION, IPCC, FOOD SECURITY, POLICIES, POLICY, PUSH FACTOR, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, URBAN CENTERS, LAND DEGRADATION, PRECIPITATION, LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS, DISASTERS, NATURAL DISASTERS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, GOOD GOVERNANCE, TRAINING, MIGRATION, RAPID POPULATION GROWTH, LEGAL STATUS, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS, TROPICS, INEQUITIES, KNOWLEDGE, SCARCE RESOURCES, ASYLUM, SECURITY THREAT, MIGRATION FLOWS, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, FLOODS, CENTURY TEMPERATURES, HUMAN SECURITY, NATURAL RESOURCES, CLIMATE, AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, UNEP, URBAN MIGRATION, POPULATION DENSITY, URBAN AREAS, SEASONAL RAINFALL, PUBLICATIONS, TECHNICAL SKILLS
CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, CLIMATE CHANGES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS, DRUG TRAFFICKING, YOUNG PEOPLE, NUMBER OF MIGRANTS, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME WEATHER, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES, RAINFALL, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION, REGIONAL STRATEGY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, MIGRANTS, UNEMPLOYMENT, INCOME, CLIMATE-CHANGE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, LOCAL CAPACITY, CIVIL WAR, TERRORIST, SCIENCE, JOBS, PREVENTION STRATEGIES, 320, PER CAPITA INCOME, DISEASES, RISK FACTORS, POPULATIONS, WAR, CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT, GOVERNMENT CAPACITY, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, POPULATION MIGRATION, 330, REGIONAL CLIMATE, MODELS, MEAN TEMPERATURE, RAINFALL PATTERNS, DEMOCRACY, WEATHER PATTERNS, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CAPACITY, CLIMATE RISK, ARMED CONFLICT, FINANCE, PEACE, FORCED MIGRATION, COLORS, MALARIA, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS, SURFACE WATER, RURAL AREAS, PROGRESS, VULNERABILITY, LABOR MARKET, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES, EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTER, RAIN, WORKSHOP, POPULATION DATA, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, WARS, SCARCITIES, MARKET, MIGRATION POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATE TRENDS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT, LIFESTYLES, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CIVIL CONFLICT, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE, POPULATION INCREASES, MINORITY, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, AVERAGE RAINFALL, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, TEMPERATURES, HOUSEHOLD ASSETS, TEMPERATURE, LIFE SKILLS, DROUGHT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, DESERTIFICATION, IPCC, FOOD SECURITY, POLICIES, POLICY, PUSH FACTOR, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, URBAN CENTERS, LAND DEGRADATION, PRECIPITATION, LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS, DISASTERS, NATURAL DISASTERS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, GOOD GOVERNANCE, TRAINING, MIGRATION, RAPID POPULATION GROWTH, LEGAL STATUS, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS, TROPICS, INEQUITIES, KNOWLEDGE, SCARCE RESOURCES, ASYLUM, SECURITY THREAT, MIGRATION FLOWS, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, FLOODS, CENTURY TEMPERATURES, HUMAN SECURITY, NATURAL RESOURCES, CLIMATE, AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, UNEP, URBAN MIGRATION, POPULATION DENSITY, URBAN AREAS, SEASONAL RAINFALL, PUBLICATIONS, TECHNICAL SKILLS
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