Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends
Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends
The objective of this study is to assess the possibility of using Internet search keyword data for forecasting price series in Central America, focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Internet search data comes from Google Trends. The paper introduces these data and discusses some of the challenges inherent in working with it in the context of developing countries. A new index is introduced for consumer search behavior for these countries using Google Trends data covering a two-week period during a single month. For each country, the study estimates one-step-ahead forecasts for several dozen price series for food and consumer goods categories. The study finds that the addition of the Internet search index improves forecasting over benchmark models in about 20 percent of the series. The paper discusses the reasons for the varied success and potential avenues for future research.
- World Bank United States
PROBABILITIES, COMMUNICATIONS, INDICATORS, HTML, DATA, INFORMATION, AGRICULTURE, ABBREVIATION, SAMPLES, ECONOMIC THEORY, CONSUMERS, CASE, RESEARCH, SOFTWARE, SEARCH TERM, ARIMA, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, VARIABLES, MEASUREMENT, SEARCH TERMS, DISTRIBUTED LAGS, RAW DATA, BASE YEAR, CRITERIA, OPEN ACCESS, INDEX, STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY, LAGS, UNEMPLOYMENT, VALUE, MACROECONOMICS, CONTENT, BENCHMARK, ABBREVIATIONS, USES, BENCHMARKS, STATISTICS, WEB, VARIABILITY, SEARCH QUERY, QUERY, GOODS, SEARCHING, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, E-MAIL, PRICE, MACHINE LEARNING, FORECASTS, 330, CASES, ECONOMIC FORECASTING, LINEAR REGRESSION, ERRORS, DATA MINING, GROWTH RATE, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, SEARCHES, PRICES, TIME SERIES, SEARCH, FORECASTING, OPTIMIZATION, INTERNET, WELFARE, EXPECTATIONS, NOTATION, RESULTS, INTEREST, SAMPLING, SEARCH BEHAVIOR, TAXONOMY, THEORY, PERFORMANCE, LEAST SQUARES METHOD, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, INDICES, TRENDS, MISSING OBSERVATIONS, LINEAR MODELS, SEARCH ENGINE, FACTOR ANALYSIS, CONSUMER GOODS, LEADING INDICATORS, AUTOMOBILE, MATRIX, PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS, SURVEYS, ARMA
PROBABILITIES, COMMUNICATIONS, INDICATORS, HTML, DATA, INFORMATION, AGRICULTURE, ABBREVIATION, SAMPLES, ECONOMIC THEORY, CONSUMERS, CASE, RESEARCH, SOFTWARE, SEARCH TERM, ARIMA, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, VARIABLES, MEASUREMENT, SEARCH TERMS, DISTRIBUTED LAGS, RAW DATA, BASE YEAR, CRITERIA, OPEN ACCESS, INDEX, STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY, LAGS, UNEMPLOYMENT, VALUE, MACROECONOMICS, CONTENT, BENCHMARK, ABBREVIATIONS, USES, BENCHMARKS, STATISTICS, WEB, VARIABILITY, SEARCH QUERY, QUERY, GOODS, SEARCHING, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, E-MAIL, PRICE, MACHINE LEARNING, FORECASTS, 330, CASES, ECONOMIC FORECASTING, LINEAR REGRESSION, ERRORS, DATA MINING, GROWTH RATE, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, SEARCHES, PRICES, TIME SERIES, SEARCH, FORECASTING, OPTIMIZATION, INTERNET, WELFARE, EXPECTATIONS, NOTATION, RESULTS, INTEREST, SAMPLING, SEARCH BEHAVIOR, TAXONOMY, THEORY, PERFORMANCE, LEAST SQUARES METHOD, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, INDICES, TRENDS, MISSING OBSERVATIONS, LINEAR MODELS, SEARCH ENGINE, FACTOR ANALYSIS, CONSUMER GOODS, LEADING INDICATORS, AUTOMOBILE, MATRIX, PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS, SURVEYS, ARMA
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