The persistent loss of life and widespread damage caused by natural disasters highlight the unpredictable and severe nature of these events and the need for better forecasting methodologies. This critical homeland security concern drives researchers to innovate, with pre-disaster anomalous animal behavior emerging as a key area of interest. This thesis investigates the potential of leveraging changes in animal behavior prior to natural disasters to improve the accuracy of disaster forecasting. Through a meta-narrative review, the thesis synthesizes observations of adaptive animal behavior among various avian, terrestrial, and aquatic species before tropical cyclones and earthquakes—the world’s most dangerous natural hazards to life and property. Several species exhibit conspicuous behavioral changes (e.g., variations in breeding patterns and activity levels) in anticipation of these natural disasters. Collectively, these animal-based indicators could enhance the reliability of disaster forecasting, offering potential insights across varying lead times and locations. This thesis advocates for more research that systematically explores adaptive animal behavior, as integrating bioindicators into forecast models could revolutionize forecasting and strengthen disaster preparedness in the United States.

Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.

Civilian, Department of Homeland Security

Outstanding Thesis