Ice storms can cause billions of dollars' worth of damage to energy infrastructure, towers, surrounding trees (that could further damage electrical structures), and transportation, and can cause deaths--either due to exposure to subfreezing temperatures or vehicular accidents. An increase in global temperatures, due to climate change, could affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic location of ice storms. Three known ice storm case studies were chosen to build, test, and adjust an algorithm that could predict freezing precipitation events. Once the algorithm was deemed satisfactory, it was used on four different ice storm seasons to analyze how well it identified and verified significant differences among the seasons. This research suggests that the algorithm could continue to be adjusted for better output and tested over several ice storm seasons. Other present weather parameters could be predicted by building another algorithm, using a similar approach.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

http://archive.org/details/icestormsinchang1094549344

Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy