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Ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and reduction in hydrological modelling and predictions

Authors: Teweldebrhan, Aynom Tesfay;

Ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and reduction in hydrological modelling and predictions

Abstract

In the contemporary world, many environmental and water resources related decisions rely upon wide range of modelling results. However, models are simplified representations of reality and their predictions are generally imperfect due to the inherent uncertainties emanating from various sources. Therefore, there is an increasing demand to incorporate uncertainty analysis as part of the modelling process. This PhD thesis was, thus, focused on uncertainty quantification and reduction in hydrological modelling through use of both existing and newly introduced methodologies. The viability of these methodologies was evaluated using the Statkraft’s hydrological model and relevant climatic and physiographic datasets from the Nea-catchment, Norway. One of the major outcomes of the PhD work was the adoption of an existing rejectionist uncertainty analysis framework as a ‘tool’ to find the useful out of the imperfect models. Further, machine learning models were coupled with the adopted uncertainty analysis framework in order to minimize the computational time when using this approach. Another major achievement was the improvement in the efficiency of two data assimilation schemes in their capability to extract the available information from the assimilated dataset and thus reducing the prediction uncertainty. The research outputs from this work are expected to contribute to the society at various levels. For example, they will aid water managers in quantifying and reducing modelling uncertainty and thereby in making rational decisions with regards to use of the valuable, but often scarce, water resources.

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Norway
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green