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Testing the Neo-Fisher Hypothesis in Norway

Authors: Krogsveen, Martine;

Testing the Neo-Fisher Hypothesis in Norway

Abstract

The existence of low nominal interest rates and inflation below target after the global financial crisis in 2008 has made some economists question the causality of the Fisher equation. As the traditional theory states that the causality in the long-run Fisher equation runs from inflation rates to interest rates, the Neo-Fisher hypothesis reverses this causality. Using monthly data on inflation rates and nominal interest rates, this thesis investigates whether there is evidence of the Neo-Fisher hypothesis in Norway. The augmented Granger causality approach by Toda and Yamamoto is used to establish the direction of causality. The result of the test is however not proof of causation but merely predictive capacity. As time series data is used, the steps before the Granger causality test include determining the order of integration and whether the time series are cointegrated. The Toda-Yamamoto approach is however valid regardless of the integration order of the series and whether there exists cointegration. The results of the Granger causality tests give no support for the Neo-Fisher hypothesis in Norway. The results rather support the traditional long-run view of the Fisher equation with causality running from inflation rates to interest rates. However, when investigating a sub-period of low nominal interest rates of the overall time period, the results support neither traditional theory nor the Neo-Fisher hypothesis.

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Norway
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green