
handle: 10852/103359
The existence of low nominal interest rates and inflation below target after the global financial crisis in 2008 has made some economists question the causality of the Fisher equation. As the traditional theory states that the causality in the long-run Fisher equation runs from inflation rates to interest rates, the Neo-Fisher hypothesis reverses this causality. Using monthly data on inflation rates and nominal interest rates, this thesis investigates whether there is evidence of the Neo-Fisher hypothesis in Norway. The augmented Granger causality approach by Toda and Yamamoto is used to establish the direction of causality. The result of the test is however not proof of causation but merely predictive capacity. As time series data is used, the steps before the Granger causality test include determining the order of integration and whether the time series are cointegrated. The Toda-Yamamoto approach is however valid regardless of the integration order of the series and whether there exists cointegration. The results of the Granger causality tests give no support for the Neo-Fisher hypothesis in Norway. The results rather support the traditional long-run view of the Fisher equation with causality running from inflation rates to interest rates. However, when investigating a sub-period of low nominal interest rates of the overall time period, the results support neither traditional theory nor the Neo-Fisher hypothesis.
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