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Estudio de series temporales orientado a estrategias de Pair Trading

Authors: Videgain Barranco, Álvaro;

Estudio de series temporales orientado a estrategias de Pair Trading

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se estudia el comportamiento de las series temporales aso- ciadas a los precios de las acciones en bolsa con el fin de poder estimar cual será el comportamiento de estas en el futuro. Con estas estimaciones se desarrolla una estra- tegia de pair trading, que es una estrategia de arbitraje estadístico. Esta estrategia se aborda desde cuatro enfoques diferentes, comparando su eficiencia mediante un expe- rimento empírico. Los dos primeros enfoques son implementaciones de los métodos de la distancia y el exponente de Hurst generalizado, los cuales son bastante populares para este tipo de estudios y han motivado los otros dos método desarrollados. El primero de los métodos propuestos consiste en utilizar el coeficiente de correlación de Pearson como medida del movimiento conjunto entre series, mientras que el otro método presentado se nutre del método de la distancia, buscando una forma alternativa de definir la distancia entre dos series. Para comparar la eficiencia de los cuatro métodos se han realizado simulaciones con datos reales en diferentes condiciones, eliminando así la dependencia que pudiera existir entre los datos y las condiciones del estudio. Es de especial de interés compa- rar los resultados de los métodos propuestos con las alternativas que se utilizan en el mercado. Entre los dos métodos propuestos destaca la nueva forma de definir la distancia a partir de los coeficientes de regresión lineal, el cual ha presentado unos resultados bastante buenos a la altura del popular método del exponente de Hurst generalizado. Si bien es cierto que este último ha tenido un comportamiento ligeramente mejor, se trata de una primera implementación del método propuesto con bastante potencial de desarrollo.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Estrategia de Pair Trading, Análisis de Series Temporales, Trabajo Fin de Grado de la Universidad de Almería

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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