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Bayesian learning in mis-specified models

Authors: Schinkel, Maarten-Pieter; Tuinstra, Jan; Vermeulen, Dries;

Bayesian learning in mis-specified models

Abstract

A central unanswered question in economic theory is that of price formation in disequilibrium. This paper lays down the methodological groundwork for a model that has been suggested as an answer to this question (Arrow, 1959; Fisher, 1983; Hahn, 1989). We consider sellers that monopolistically compete in prices but have incomplete information about the structure of the market they face. They each entertain a simple demand conjecture in which sales are perceived to depend on the own price only, and set prices to maximize expected profits. Prior beliefs on the parameters of conjectured demand are updated into posterior beliefs upon each observation of sales at proposed prices, using Bayes' rule. The rational learning process thus constructed drives the price dynamics of the model. Its properties are analysed. Moreover, a sufficient condition is provided, relating objectively possible events and subjective beliefs, under which the price process is globally stable on a conjectural equilibrium for almost all objectively possible developments of history.

Country
Spain
Keywords

bayesian learning, oligopolistic price setting, oligopolistic price setting, bayesian learning, conjectural equilibrium, global stability, global stability, MICROECONOMICS, C51, C62, D83, MATHEMATICAL AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS, conjectural equilibrium, C11, D21, D43, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C62, jel: jel:D83, jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:D21, jel: jel:D43

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green