
handle: 10784/7544 , 10495/6447
RESUMEN: El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los ciclos económicos de los países que firman los tratados comerciales ALAC o ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA y CAN, con el fin de encontrar argumentos que demuestren o contradigan una posible sincronización de los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica. Se realiza el análisis a través de dos metodologías, la primera, estudia las correlaciones del ciclo económico, para la cual, se hace uso del filtro de Hodrick y Prescott (HP) para extraer el componente de tendencia de las series y la segunda, por medio de una medida no paramétrica denominada índice de concordancia presentado por Harding y Pagan (1999). En síntesis, se encuentran relaciones interesantes entre algunos de sus miembros, pero sus vínculos no son lo suficientemente fuertes para hablar de un ciclo común, por esta razón se puede afirmar que no se presentan indicios de sincronización económica en los tratados analizados.
ABSTRACT: The paper analyze the business cycles of countries that sign trade agreements of ALAC or ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA and CAN, it is order to find arguments to prove or contradict a possible synchronization of business cycles in Latin America. Analysis is performed through the study of business cycle correlations, for which use is made of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) to extract the trend component of the series. After obtaining the cycle component of the series is an examination of the correlations between countries, it is analysis will find the degree of relationship between economies. In synthesis there are interesting relationships between some members, but their links are not strong enough to speak of a common cycle, therefore we can to say don’t show signs of economic synchronization.
Tratados Comerciales., 330, exportations, ALALC (Asociación Latinoamericana de Libre Comercio), Filter Hodrick-Prescott, CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement), Synchronization, Ciclos económicos, Tratados Comerciales, accords commerciaux, Trade Agreements, Cycles business, Exportaciones, Synchronisation, Económicos, Tratados comerciales, Sincronización, Export, CAN (Comunidad Andina de Naciones), Ciclos Económicos, Ciclos, cycles économiques
Tratados Comerciales., 330, exportations, ALALC (Asociación Latinoamericana de Libre Comercio), Filter Hodrick-Prescott, CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement), Synchronization, Ciclos económicos, Tratados Comerciales, accords commerciaux, Trade Agreements, Cycles business, Exportaciones, Synchronisation, Económicos, Tratados comerciales, Sincronización, Export, CAN (Comunidad Andina de Naciones), Ciclos Económicos, Ciclos, cycles économiques
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