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Los Ciclos Económicos En ALALC O ALADI, CAN, CAFTA, MCCA: 1960-2008

Authors: Martínez Roldán, Luis Esteban; Hurtado Rendón, Álvaro Arturo; Builes, Francisco; Calle Marín, Natalia; Vásquez Bedoya, Fredy Alonso;

Los Ciclos Económicos En ALALC O ALADI, CAN, CAFTA, MCCA: 1960-2008

Abstract

RESUMEN: El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los ciclos económicos de los países que firman los tratados comerciales ALAC o ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA y CAN, con el fin de encontrar argumentos que demuestren o contradigan una posible sincronización de los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica. Se realiza el análisis a través de dos metodologías, la primera, estudia las correlaciones del ciclo económico, para la cual, se hace uso del filtro de Hodrick y Prescott (HP) para extraer el componente de tendencia de las series y la segunda, por medio de una medida no paramétrica denominada índice de concordancia presentado por Harding y Pagan (1999). En síntesis, se encuentran relaciones interesantes entre algunos de sus miembros, pero sus vínculos no son lo suficientemente fuertes para hablar de un ciclo común, por esta razón se puede afirmar que no se presentan indicios de sincronización económica en los tratados analizados.

ABSTRACT: The paper analyze the business cycles of countries that sign trade agreements of ALAC or ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA and CAN, it is order to find arguments to prove or contradict a possible synchronization of business cycles in Latin America. Analysis is performed through the study of business cycle correlations, for which use is made of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) to extract the trend component of the series. After obtaining the cycle component of the series is an examination of the correlations between countries, it is analysis will find the degree of relationship between economies. In synthesis there are interesting relationships between some members, but their links are not strong enough to speak of a common cycle, therefore we can to say don’t show signs of economic synchronization.

Country
Colombia
Keywords

Tratados Comerciales., 330, exportations, ALALC (Asociación Latinoamericana de Libre Comercio), Filter Hodrick-Prescott, CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement), Synchronization, Ciclos económicos, Tratados Comerciales, accords commerciaux, Trade Agreements, Cycles business, Exportaciones, Synchronisation, Económicos, Tratados comerciales, Sincronización, Export, CAN (Comunidad Andina de Naciones), Ciclos Económicos, Ciclos, cycles économiques

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Green